The “emerging market” slump (Michael Roberts)

Riprendiamo dal Blog di Michael Roberts (un economista marxista britannico) uno dei suoi ultimi post, che si concentra sul prevedibile impatto della crisi globale sull’economia dei paesi del Sud del mondo, di solito definiti “emergenti”. Il collasso dei prezzi delle materie prime, a cominciare da quello del petrolio, e la tendenza del dollaro ad apprezzarsi (come, tuttora, moneta regina e bene rifugio) con la conseguente crescita del debito estero, mette molti paesi dominati e controllati a rischio di piombare in una vera e propria depressione, con conseguenze particolarmente drammatiche per le classi lavoratrici. Nell’America centro-meridionale (Cile, Colombia, Haiti, etc.) e nel mondo arabo e medio-orientale (Sudan, Algeria, Libano, Iraq, Iran) la situazione era già diventata insostenibile e calda prima dello scoppio di questa crisi, è con ogni probabilita’ diverra’ in breve tempo decisamente insopportabile e bollente …

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Forecasts of a global slump in the rest of 2020 are coming in droves from mainstream economists – it’s now the consensus that there will be a contraction in global real GDP in at least two consecutive quarters (Q1 and Q2), in the wake of COVID-19 pandemic and the ‘lock down’ in response.

The International Institute of Finance (IIF), the research body of international banks, now reckons that the US will contract by annualised 10% by end-June and Europe by 18%.

Deutsche Bank economists reckon that the first half of 2020 will experience the worst slump since the 1930s. “The quarterly declines in GDP growth we anticipate substantially exceed anything previously recorded going back to at least World War II.” Oxford Economics reckons the US economy will contract at annual rate of 12% by end-June.

But the mainstream remains optimistic.  All forecast a sharp recovery in the second half of 2020. China is recovering fast, the argument goes, and by September the major capitalist economies will bounce back, once the pandemic subsides or the authorities are able to contain it (as they appear to have done in China, Korea and Japan). Continua a leggere The “emerging market” slump (Michael Roberts)